Paradise on the Brink: Japan's East China Sea Jewel Amid Taiwan China Tensions

By: Khaled A. BaRahma

Background

The complex status of Taiwan traces back to the Chinese Civil War, culminating in 1949 when the Nationalist (Kuomintang) government retreated from the mainland. The People's Republic of China (PRC) asserts that Taiwan is an integral part of China and advocates for its "reunification" with the mainland, despite never having exercised sovereignty over the island. In a 2022 white paper, the PRC declared that resolving the Taiwan issue is a "historic mission" for the Chinese Communist Party, essential for achieving China's rejuvenation. Although the PRC prefers peaceful reunification, it reserves the right to use force if necessary.

In Taiwan, the two major political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), differ significantly on their approach to mainland China. During his presidency from 2008 to 2016, KMT's President Ma Ying-jeou promoted the "1992 Consensus," which recognized "one China" while allowing for different interpretations. This policy led to closer cross-strait relations but faced criticism within Taiwan for potentially restricting its future options. Conversely, current DPP leader and President Tsai Ing-wen has rejected the 1992 Consensus, resulting in strained relations with the PRC and various punitive measures against Taiwan.

In 1979, the United States shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing and terminated the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, which had been in place since 1954. The U.S. acknowledged the PRC's "One China" policy, including Taiwan as part of China, but maintains a neutral stance on Taiwan's sovereignty, viewing its final status as undetermined. Concurrently, President Jimmy Carter signed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), committing the U.S. to supply Taiwan with defense articles and services necessary for its self-defense. The TRA also mandates U.S. readiness to counter any threats to Taiwan's security, society, or economy, while maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity, as it does not require military intervention to defend Taiwan.

The Japanese Concern

The Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, pose a potential flashpoint for conflict over the next decade. Currently controlled by Japan but claimed by China, the islands are seen as vital to both nations' interests, leading to increased military presence and a lack of effective de-escalation measures. Any conflict could have significant repercussions for the geopolitical stability of East Asia and beyond.

Nationalism and pride play crucial roles in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute, with both Tokyo and Beijing asserting historical and legal claims to the territory. Differing interpretations of historical events and international agreements have further complicated the issue, creating an uncertain future for the islands. Public opinion polling highlights the dispute's impact on nationalist attitudes and escalating tensions between the two nations. A 2023 Genron NPO survey revealed increased nationalist sentiment, with 92.2% of Japanese and 62.9% of Chinese participants holding unfavorable views of the other country. Previous polls indicated that the ongoing territorial dispute significantly contributes to these negative perceptions.

The military build-up and assertive actions by both countries suggest that tensions in the East China Sea are likely to persist. Japanese control of the territory was largely uncontested until 2010, when a collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and a Japanese Coast Guard ship marked a turning point. Since then, both nations have ramped up their military presence in the area. In 2023, Chinese Coast Guard patrols in the waters around the islands reached a record high with 1,287 incursions, including a continuous 134-day presence. Simultaneously, Japan has bolstered its military presence in the Ryukyu archipelago to counter Chinese activities in the East China Sea.

Tensions further escalated in November 2023 when President Xi Jinping instructed the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) to "continuously enhance" China's regional assertions. Consequently, the CCG's East China Sea Command formulated strategies to maintain a regular presence in the disputed waters throughout 2024 and began warning the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to vacate the area. In response, Tokyo engaged in diplomatic discussions to prevent further strain on bilateral relations.

Conflict De-escalation Mechanisms

Existing mechanisms for de-escalation face practical and design limitations. In April 2014, naval forces across the Pacific, including China and Japan, endorsed the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This code outlines protocols and communication strategies to maintain safety during unforeseen interactions. However, the absence of bilateral drills to ensure proper understanding of its application by respective militaries raises concerns about its effectiveness in real-time disputes.

The Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism (MACM), implemented in March 2023, aimed to enhance communication and reduce conflict risk between China and Japan. However, the MACM's limitations, which restricted communication to defense authorities and excluded individual military personnel, cast doubt on its effectiveness at the operational level. As tensions persisted, there was a growing recognition of the need for more comprehensive measures and protocols to prevent conflicts and ensure successful de-escalation. Enhanced communication and coordination between military forces became increasingly urgent to navigate complex geopolitical challenges and maintain regional peace and stability.

Conclusion

The evolving power dynamics in East Asia could lead to heightened tensions and potential military confrontations. The Chinese Communist Party's military modernization efforts, including the development of advanced weaponry such as hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft, and advanced naval capabilities, pose significant challenges to U.S. military dominance in the region. China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, marked by the construction and militarization of artificial islands, has raised concerns among neighboring countries, including Japan. The potential for conflict over territorial disputes, such as the Senkaku Islands, could escalate as China's military capabilities grow.

In response, Japan has been strengthening its defense capabilities and alliances with regional powers like Australia and India to counterbalance China's influence. The U.S. has also increased its military presence in the region and enhanced security cooperation with Japan to maintain stability and deter potential aggression from China. Overall, China's military modernization efforts have the potential to significantly alter the power dynamics in East Asia, leading to increased tensions and potential conflicts. Diplomatic efforts are crucial to prevent the escalation of military confrontations and maintain regional peace and stability.